Now What?

So your team has “won the winter” as they say.  They made the biggest splash, the best signings, and you’ve been essentially anointed as division champion by Valentine’s Day.  The problem is winning on the field is much more difficult than winning off the field.  In recent memory the 2015 Padres and the 2013 Blue Jays were the perfect example of winning the winter and losing the summer (could you imagine if Syndergaard was pitching for the Blue Jays right now instead of Dickey?).  Both of these teams acquired big time names and looked to make a run at the playoffs after sizeable postseason droughts.  Ironically, they both finished 74-88, crushing the dreams of their fans and analysts alike who had picked them to succeed in the fall.  This year a few teams made some big splashes trying to take that next step.  Let’s take a look at what those teams need to do in order to avoid falling into the pits of despair that their winter winning colleagues have in the past.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks

When you have an exceptional talent like Paul Goldschmidt playing first base, you need to find a way to build a winning team around him.  Last season the Diamondbacks finished only four games below .500, and pushed all their chips in the middle this winter to try to compete with the Dodgers and Giants.  Unfortunately, one of those chips was last summer’s first overall pick Dansby Swanson who was sent to the Braves in a deal for Shelby Miller.  Miller, who was traded for Jason Heyward and Swanson in back to back years, has the talent to be a frontline starter on a decent team.  His 6-17 record last year was abysmal, but didn’t come close to represent his performance.  He could win 10 more games this season if he maintains his 3.02 ERA with an offense that could support him.  The other big splash that occurred in the dessert this off-season was the signing of big time free agent Zack Greinke.  The six year $206 million signing of the 32 year old veteran turned some heads in the baseball world, but has solidified the top of the Arizona rotation.

In order to compete with the high-priced/extremely talented Dodgers and the every other year champion Giants (it is an even year you know) the Diamondbacks will need their newest additions to perform to their expectations.  Greinke and Miller don’t have to be the second coming of Schilling/Johnson, but they need to perform well.  I think that reasonable expectations are Greinke and Miller to win 30 games combined, and for Patrick Corbin to thrown in a dozen or so.  This would more than likely put Arizona at least in the Wild Card hunt come September.  There is a good chance that this division could beat each other up however, and the first one to 90 wins will take it.  If the three big teams trade wins and losses regularly, it will all depend on who can take the most from the Padres and the Rockies.  This is difficult to predict because playing in Colorado is sort of a wild card where anything can happen.

What needs to happen for them to win their division?

The offense, led by Goldschmidt and Pollack is pretty good.  If someone like Yasmany Tomas could fulfill his potential it would help drastically, but I don’t believe that is their biggest need.  The top of their rotation has new talent, but it is the 3, 4, and 5 guys that will decide the Diamondbacks fate.  Patrick Corbin is starting the season healthy, and could be a great third starter if he gets back to his pre-Tommy John form.  The real question in my mind is guys like Archie Bradley and Zack Godley, pitchers with great potential who could help carry the back end of this staff.  If one or two guys between Corbin, Bradley, and Godley can stay healthy and be consistent all year, the Diamondbacks could win their division.

Will they win their division? 

No, I don’t believe they will.  In fact, I don’t even think they will grab a Wild Card spot.  They have made some great additions, but it is going to be very difficult to keep up with the Giants and Dodgers.  I don’t believe they will fall by the wayside like previous “winter winners” but I still feel they are one or two pieces away from running what I believe, along with the AL East, will be one of the most competitive divisions in the game.

 

San Francisco Giants

The other team to make a good splash this off-season is the San Francisco Giants.  Gone are the foundations of their rotation Lincecum and Cain.  OK, Cain is still on the roster, but he will be occupying the fifth starter position opening day.  The new faces in the two and three slots of the rotation are Jeff Samardzija and World Series Champion Johnny Cueto.  Sandwiching these two between Madison Bumgarner and Jake Peavy gives the bi-annual (is that a word?) World Series champs a very formidable rotation.  This along with their collection of wild haired scrappy players like Hunter Pence and Brandon Crawford could give them a good opportunity to keep up with their every other year pace.

The new additions only raise the high expectations of San Francisco fans who, after a half a decade without a title, have all of sudden become very accustomed to winning.  Samardzija is coming off a very down year on the south side of Chicago where his K/9 rate that was between 8 and 9 for six seasons plummeted to 6.9.  The Giants are hoping that a fresh start in a pitcher friendly ballpark will get those numbers back to where they belong.  He has stayed healthy, appearing in at least 32 games for the past four seasons.  If he can keep that pace, the combination of one of the best game managers leading him behind the plate and his raw skills could result in a spike in his production.

Cueto brings his recent winning experience to a team of winners.  A couple of clutch performances in the postseason mainly overshadowed what was a very disappointing finish to the season after being the big acquisition at the trade deadline last summer.  An ERA near five left Royals fans frustrated going in to October, but a complete game win in the World Series makes you forget things very quickly.  Other than one disastrous start in the ALCS, Cueto performed pretty well and lived up to the price that was paid for him in July.  Like Samardzija, the Giants are hoping the factors in the Bay Area can help Cueto forget about the majority of last season and get back to his previous form.  Four consecutive years of a sub-three ERA between 2011-2014 show that Cueto can pitch well in the National League, and the Giants hope to capitalize on that.

What needs to happen for them to win their division?

This team might have the best rotation in baseball, so even if one person falters the rest can pick up the slack.  If Cueto and Samardzija can get close to their old selves, and one pitcher from the selection of Peavy, Cain, and Heston can be consistent every five days, the Giants should do very well.  Their scrappy offense doesn’t exactly scare a ton of people, but with that rotation they won’t have to score too much.

Will they win their division? 

Yes, I believe they will.  I think they made some great additions, and have constructed a rotation not only made to win their division, but to go very far in the postseason as well.  The Dodgers and Diamondbacks will not be easy to get past, but I think the Giants pitching will be too much for them to handle.

 

Chicago Cubs

All National League teams?  Yes, the third and final team that did their best to “win the winter” is the Chicago Cubs.  They have what many scouts and “experts” consider a great deal of young talent, and are set up to win for many years.  Joe Maddon and Theo Epstein are sitting pretty, and things are looking pretty good on the north side these days.  The Cubs only needed to fill some small holes to complement their young talent, but they did so in pretty sizable ways.  Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, and John Lackey will be more than “filler” players, they will contribute to a winning ball club.

Zobrist, once thought of as the most versatile player in baseball was signed more than likely because Maddon, as his manager in Tampa Bay, loved the ability to have someone who could contribute from almost any position.  His numbers have been pretty consistent over the past few years hitting in the .275 range with slightly declining power and good pitch recognition.  He is in the twilight of his career and won’t reach his 2009 numbers of .297, 27 HR, and 17 SB, but he will still find a way to help this team win.

Jason Heyward and John Lackey both jumped the rivalry line to come to the Cubs from St. Louis.  Heyward is young and in the prime of his career.  His bat and speed will be viable in Wrigley, along with his gold glove caliber fielding.  He will solidify a very solid, hard hitting outfield along with Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler.  Lackey comes in as the aged veteran who has been on plenty of winning teams.  He will be an asset to the middle of the rotation and can bring some veteran leadership that this team might need to make a deep playoff run.

 

What needs to happen for them to win their division?

The NL Central has been very competitive the past few years with the Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs all fielding very good teams.  There is reason to believe that the Cardinals could take a slight step back this year (calm down “best baseball fans” they’re still going to win 85 games), but regardless the top three will make for some good division competition.  The Cubs have a pretty stacked roster, and the biggest thing that needs to happen for them to compete for a championship is they need to stay healthy.  They need to work to keep veterans like Lackey and Lester going strong, and to keep young guys like Schwarber, Soler, and Kris Bryant from being overwhelmed by Major League pitching.  Soler was only up for a short time two years ago, but last season his numbers dropped in comparison.  He had four times as many at bats and only twice as many HR.  Meanwhile his OPS dropped from .903 to .723.  The Cubs need to find ways to keep their other young guys from regressing like this in their second season.

Will they win their division? 

Yes.  I haven’t seen many season predictions yet, but I have a feeling this may be one of the more unanimous selections of teams that will win their division.  Looking over their lineup they are strong at every position, and I believe that they could not only get back to the NLCS, but possibly reach the World Series.

 

Honorable Mention

• Red Sox obtained Craig Kimbrel and David Price. We will see how they both like pitching in Fenway and if they can help Big Papi ride off into the sunset.
• In more news where the Padres sold off all of the guys they got when they “won the winter”, Justin Upton is now on the Tigers. The Tigers also signed Jordan Zimmerman to help fill the void they lost when they traded Price a year ago.  Their division is more competitive now with the Indians, White Sox, and Twins all possible up and coming teams, and they have a pretty tall hill to climb.